October 2022: Why Is Everyone Sitting on the Sidelines?
/There is always a certain amount of uncertainty in real estate and we often ask the question, “Why did this property sell and not the other?” There are usually several reasons; the seller’s strategy, marketing, or timing. But it could be as fortuitous as the buyer grew up on or always loved that particular street. On the flip side, it may not have sold simply because superstition drove the buyer away due to the house number, location on the street, or proximity to a cemetery, and the list goes on… Often times it comes down to finding the right buyer at the right time, and this has been especially true this fall.
In Toronto, we have grown accustomed to continuously increasing home prices and a persistent lack of inventory. Other than relatively minor dips in 2008, 2011, and 2020 prices have only trended upwards. Now prices are falling, or at the very least flattening, and we are seeing an even greater lack of inventory that can mostly be attributed to seller uncertainty. Homeowners aren’t as eager to list if they worry they could have made more last year or will another year from now.
In the GTA last month when compared to October 2021, the number of transactions was down a whopping 49%, sales were down 5.7% and days on market was up 88% to 33 days. As we’ve seen all fall, buyers are taking more of a wait and see approach even with the limited supply on the market. Even though this month saw average prices on par with September this year, many don’t feel that prices won’t fall further when we’ve already seen a 15% drop since the market peaked in February. However, it is important to note that prices are still above pre-pandemic levels by 27.8%.
What does this mean going forward? It’s difficult to predict. The rise in interest rates with more expected to come, paired with a lacklustre stock market has hampered the demand for real estate this year. But that’s not to say in 6 months we won’t be back to the norm of rising prices. We still have a shortage of homes to fill our current needs and increased immigration to Toronto continues to push demand.
As we always tell our clients, prudence and caution has never been more important. Purchasing your home is emotional, but try to minimize that emotion and think objectively. Will the market continue to be flat and maybe fall of a bit? Possibly, probably. But if you are a buyer and you see the home you wish at the price that you feel is fair to pay then you should (unemotionally) seriously think about it because if you let it go, you might not see another like it for a long time. A home is generally not like a car. Homes are unique and the right one can be rare to find.
Commentary by Joseph Robert, Broker of Record