August 2022: What Will The Fall Bring?

The August TRREB stats came out on Friday and it was with no surprise that unit sales volume was way down year-over-year by 34.2%. This is an 11.1% improvement from what we witnessed in July but still a large figure. Most interestingly, the average sale price in Toronto continues to be positive, up 1% from last year. Condo sales were also up 3.6% and Freehold homes were down 3.1%.

What will September bring now that the Labour Day weekend has passed and school has started up again? Will we see more quietness as we did this summer, or will homeowners start listing their homes and will buyers being focusing on purchasing again? I say yes to the latter, but with an asterisk*. Sales will increase as people refocus on their housing needs (upsizing, downsizing, “rightsizing”) but not to the overheated level we saw at the beginning of 2022.  Sale prices will also be up marginally as a result of the increase in volume.

We expect September will show a wait and see attitude as many will stay on the sidelines until the post-summer dust settles to get a sense of the market. The challenge is if everyone continues to do this into the fall it will be hard to get a good gauge from others. Add to this another 0.75% interest rate increase and Canadians may be thinking hard on their options.

During these times our strategy, and what we tell our clients when listing, is to price your home at today’s market value. Don’t look at February 2022 (market peak) but look at September 2021 before pandemic inflation took effect. When purchasing, don’t get caught up in a frenzied bidding war and make sure your purchase is what you truly want. Take the time to consider your options, do your due diligence, and think about your next move.

Commentary by Joseph Robert, Broker of Record