November 2023: It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year…

“It’s the most wonderful time of the year…” as the song goes, but unfortunately that is not the case for those in the Toronto real estate market these days.

Not much has changed from what we were seeing last month with prices almost flat (+0.3%), sales down (-6.0%), and the number of active listings up significantly (+40.7%) in Toronto overall from the same period last year. Mostly the result of continued high interest rates and uncertain economic conditions.

But in all honesty, it’s not that surprising to see underwhelming sales figures as we approach the holiday season and peoples’ attention is all consumed by buying gifts, holiday celebrations, and winter vacations.

In November 2023 real estate prices were down from last month in all four corners of the city regardless of home type (detached, semis, condos, etc.). Some would point to this as cause for concern, but again, it’s not unusual for this time of year. On the flip side, the holiday season can often be seen as an opportune time for eager would-be buyers to snatch up a deal, especially as we get closer to the holidays and sellers no longer want to be dealing with a listing through the winter break. And although it may seem obvious, this also means anyone interested in selling should really be considering listing in the new year if they want to get top dollar.

With thoughts turning to 2024, it seems we could be approaching the light at the end of the tunnel sooner than we thought. Although not entirely unbiased, Royal LePage reports as of yesterday that they expect overall home prices in Canada to increase 5.5% by Q4 2024. Their view is that with the Bank of Canada’s latest announcement that interest rates are being held at 5.0%, they expect rates to start trending downward as early as summer 2024.

“Looking ahead, we see 2024 as an important tipping point for the national economy as the majority of Canadians acknowledge that the ultra-low interest rate era is dead and gone,”said Phil Soper, President and CEO, Royal LePage. “We believe that the ‘great adjustment’ to tolerable, mid-single-digit borrowing costs will have a firm grip on our collective consciousness after only modest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada.”

This is no guarantee of course but the prevailing sentiment amongst real estate professionals is that we’re most likely at the bottom of this market we’ve been experiencing for the past 12-18 months and 2024 is primed for a rebound. With that said, buyers should be on the lookout for potentially deals right now and sellers will need to practice patience, at least for the time being. If and when rates do eventually start to creep down, expect the demand for homes to return quickly.

Warm Wishes, Happy Holidays and a terrific New Years to all your family and friends!


Market Commentary by Joseph Robert, Broker of Record &
JR Robert, Sales Representative

Sources
TRREB November 2023 Market Watch Report: Read Here
Royal LePage Market Report (Dec 14): Read Here