January 2024: Market Update & 2024 Market Outlook & Year in Review

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Market Update: January 2024

Home sales in Toronto last month were up quite a bit (+37.0%) compared to the same period last year, with prices pretty much unchanged (-1.0%) across the GTA. The average price of a detached house now stands at $1,350,828 with an average condo at $681,979 in the GTA.

The common sentiment for the past few months in Toronto real estate is that it’s been “a buyer’s market without any buyers,” because supply has outweighed demand but higher interest rates are still keeping buyers on the sidelines. This remains the case especially while it’s the winter season, but we are starting to see improved sales conditions bolstered by the expectation that interest rate relief is within sight for 2024. Many are expecting a sales resurgence as a result come the spring with prices likely to rise, so eager buyers should be on the lookout and potential sellers need to start preparing to not miss out once the action begins.

2024 Market Outlook & 2023 Year in Review

2024 Market Outlook: What’s Trending Next

The direction of mortgage rates is key to where the housing market is headed in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). TRREB is forecasting that:

  • Home sales will reach the 77,000 mark in 2024, marking a substantial improvement compared to the less than 66,000 transactions in 2023.

  • The projected average selling price will move closer to $1.17 million this year. This would be the second highest mark on record but still below the 2022 peak.

2023 Year in Review: A Look Back

Sales, prices, and new listings results in 2023 showed decreases when compared to 2022:

  • Home sales dropped 12.1% from 75,047

  • New listings in 2023 were down 8.6% to 142,233

  • The average price of $1,126,604 for all home types decreased 5.4% from $1,190,749

New Homes & Condos Review & Outlook

According to Altus Group, 2023 new home sales got off to a slow start, following the trend of the last half of 2022. The highlights are:

  • New condominium apartment sales bore the brunt of the slowdown in 2023

  • Benchmark prices slipped by over 15% since their peak in early 2022

  • If the Bank of Canada holds and possibly lowers interest rates, stronger demand in the new homes market will likely occur

Market Commentary by Joseph Robert, Broker of Record &
JR Robert Sales Representative